4% GDP Growth for Ukraine in 2013 - EBRD Forecast

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22 May, 2012, 08:55 GMT

KYIV, Ukraine, May 22, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts GDP growth in Ukraine over 2013 to reach 4 percent compared to 2.5 percent in 2012. This growth is the second highest in Central and Eastern Europe, with only a prognosis for Moldova being higher - 4.5 percent. Ukraine is followed by Estonia (predicted 3.4 percent GDP growth in 2013).

Slovenia is the only country in the EBRD report to have a negative forecast of 1.1 percent GDP decrease in 2013. Its GDP has been declining over 2011 (by 0.2 percent) and continues to drop in 2012 - by 2 percent. The forecast of GDP growth in 2013 for other Central and Eastern European countries - Belarus, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, and Slovakia - fluctuates around 3 percent.

The rate of price increases halved in Ukraine, as well as in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Romania, Russia, and Serbia, reads the EBRD report, issued on May 18th. Slowing down of inflation in these countries resulted from the stabilization of food and commodity prices. 2011 inflation in Ukraine reached 7.7 percent. EBRD analysts suggest the number will settle at 4 percent in 2012.

The report notes the dependence of the further development of Ukrainian economy on the Eurozone dynamics. Analysts state that, besides the immediate Eurozone members, Ukraine will also experience growth slowdown as it is "somewhat integrated with both the Eurozone and Russia".

Overall, the economic growth of Ukraine in 2012 is predicted to be higher than that of the EU as the World Bank expects the Eurozone and other developed economies to grow by 2.1 percent in 2012 (1.9 percent less than predicted for Ukraine).

The EBRD report lists Ukraine's 2011 GDP growth - 5.2 percent. Ukrainian GDP growth rate in 2011 had been one of the highest in Europe. The neighbouring Poland had GDP growth of 4.3 percent, while average in Central Europe and Baltic states reached 3.5 percent, and average for Southeast Europe - 2.2.

In addition to high GDP growth, Ukrainian economy experienced lowest in the last eight years growth in price and tariffs - 4.6 percent. Moreover, purchasing power parity in Ukraine grew by 15 percent in 2011.