Acceleration of the PE cycle will be key for growth, highlights Dechert report

The 2025 Global Private Equity Outlook provides dealmakers with key insights as they look to raise funds, deploy capital, and get back to the deal table over the next twelve months.

• 60% of respondents globally now offer a co-investment programme.
• 93% of respondents are at least somewhat likely to consider take-private deals in the next 12 months. 
• 82% of respondents expect secondaries activity levels to remain buoyant or increase in the next two years following 4x growth in the past five years.

LONDON, Nov. 12, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Dechert LLP, in partnership with Mergermarket, has today announced the release of their 7^th annual Global Private Equity Outlook, a comprehensive report into the state of the private equity (PE) market today, and the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the industry in 2025.

Overall activity points to a genuine resilience in the PE sector in 2024, despite an increasingly volatile environment, including two years of increased borrowing costs following more than a decade of ultra-low interest rates as well as geopolitical volatility, economic turmoil and industry upheaval.

In volume terms, the first three quarters of 2024 saw 6,792 buyout transactions worldwide, representing just a 1% decrease on the same period in 2023. In value terms, meanwhile, 2024 looks much healthier than 2023 with buyout deals worth $703 billion worldwide in the first three quarters of the year, up 47% on 2023.

"This year's report highlights the evolving state of the private equity industry. Whilst we have not seen a return to the levels of activity seen in 2021 and early 2022, dealmaking is robust when compared with the pre-pandemic years," said Chris Field, co-head of Dechert's private equity practice. "Improving sentiment and reduced uncertainty have laid the foundations for what should be an even stronger 2025."

Based on responses from senior executives across 100 global PE firms, the key findings from this year's Global Private Equity Outlook include: 

• 60% of respondents globally now offer a co-investment programme.
• 93% of respondents are at least somewhat likely to consider take-private deals in the next 12 months.  
• 82% of respondents expect secondaries activity levels to remain buoyant or increase in the next two years following 4x growth in the past five years.
• 34% of global respondents are exploring GP-stake divestitures in the next two years.

The report also highlights a number of challenges for firms to overcome. This includes increasing regulation, with 66% of PE firms globally expecting increased scrutiny from antitrust, FDI and other regulatory authorities to have a negative impact on their dealmaking plans over the next 12 months.

Meanwhile, over a quarter (27%) of respondents expect relatively weak economic growth to have the biggest impact on the deal environment over the next 12-18 months, while almost half (46%) cite geopolitical conflict as one of the three biggest impacts on the market over the near term.   

Focusing on EMEA, dealmaking has remained consistent, with deal value continuing to increase. Deals in the first three quarters of the year were worth a total of $203.7 billion, up from $119.0 billion over the same period in 2023. What's more, exit activity is also starting to rise. "The U.S. market has been quicker to recover thus far, with the European market slightly behind. However, with rates falling and models improving, we can now follow the pick-up over the coming months." Global Managing Partner, Sabina Comis, said.

"The system has been clogged," adds Field. "Exits haven't been happening as often because sellers were wanting prices that were too high to work for buyers when they put the numbers into their models; now that rates are reducing, the models start to look better, and the cycle begins to spin again."

To read the 2025 Global Private Equity Outlook in full, please click here.

Methodology
In July 2024, Mergermarket, on behalf of Dechert LLP, surveyed 100 senior-level executives at PE firms based in North America (45%), EMEA (35%), and Asia-Pacific (20%). In order to qualify for inclusion, the firms all needed to have US$1bn or more in assets under management (AUM) and respondents could not be first-time fund managers.

The survey included a combination of qualitative and quantitative questions, and all interviews were conducted over the telephone by appointment. Results were analysed and collated by Mergermarket, and all responses are anonymised and presented in aggregate.

About Dechert
Dechert is a global law firm that advises asset managers, financial institutions and corporations on issues critical to managing their business and their capital – from high-stakes litigation to complex transactions and regulatory matters. We answer questions that seem unsolvable, develop deal structures that are new to the market and protect clients' rights in extreme situations. Our nearly 1,000 lawyers across 20 offices globally focus on the financial services, private equity, private credit, real estate, life sciences and technology sectors. 

About Dechert's Global Private Equity Practice
Dechert has been at the forefront of advising private equity firms for almost 40 years. With more than 300 private equity and private investment clients, we have unique insights into how the industry has evolved and where it's going next. Our globally integrated team of more than 350 private equity lawyers advises private equity, private credit and other alternative asset managers on flexible solutions at every phase of the investment life cycle.