Carbon-Free Europe Releases New Energy Systems Modelling

New study analyses the UK's progress towards carbon neutrality using cutting-edge energy systems models to evaluate the latest changes in energy policy and technology costs

LONDON, June 8, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Carbon-Free Europe (CFE) released its latest Annual Decarbonisation Perspective in partnership with Evolved Energy Research, which provides annual insights into Europe's progress towards carbon neutrality by using cutting-edge energy systems models to evaluate the latest changes in energy policy and technology costs.

Among other key findings, the new analysis finds that accelerating the deployment of offshore wind and expanding nuclear generation infrastructure should be key priorities for the UK's Energy Security Strategy. If the UK fails to build new nuclear energy at scale, energy systems costs of the transition increase and the UK will need to build out almost 30% more electricity capacity – on top of already needing to roughly double capacity by 2050 compared to today.

This year's study, incorporating the implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis, also sheds light on the impact of EU clean energy policy such as the Fit for 55 package and REPowerEU.

CFE's analysis shows that several actions must be taken to meet climate commitments from expanding the use of renewable energy sources, notably tapping into Ukraine's potential to contribute clean electricity and hydrogen, to executing plans to replace internal combustion engines with electric vehicles. Rigorous measures in the building sector, including a transition to heat pumps and building retrofits, along with an inclusive policy approach utilising all available carbon-free energy technologies, are also crucial in this roadmap.

Key Takeaways

1. Ukraine can become a unique contributor of both clean electricity and hydrogen to the whole of Europe, adding almost 100 GWs of new wind and solar by 2050, or almost 20% of today's renewable capacity.
2. The UK and EU will need to build new infrastructure–electricity grids, hydrogen pipelines, and CO₂ pipelines–at unprecedented rates to sustain a clean energy economy, requiring faster siting, permitting, and financing of projects.
3. It is imperative for the UK and EU to facilitate near-term financing and RD&D support for innovative technologies necessary for long-term decarbonisation.
4. Encouraging flexibility (e.g. through Electricity Market Design reform and updating rate design to account for system-wide costs) is critical to the reliable and affordable operations of a clean power grid.
5. Some countries will max out the usage of their renewable resource potential, underscoring the importance of long-term planning for resource constraints and land availability.

"Carbon-Free Europe's Annual Decarbonisation Perspective underscores the UK and EU's potential to achieve their climate and energy objectives without regressing to fossil fuels despite the current energy and cost of living crisis," said CFE co-founder Lindsey Walter. "Our modelling highlights the importance of the UK developing an industrial policy that fortifies its inclusive technology approach towards net-zero. This would not only bolster the UK's energy independence, but also cement its global competitiveness in the clean energy marketplace."

"An efficient, effective path to net-zero by 2050 will rest on balancing short and long-term strategic planning in the EU," said CFE Senior Research Advisor Isabelle Chan. "As countries work toward embedding new climate targets within their NECP revisions, such as under the Fit for 55 package and REPowerEU, they must also take into account renewable resource potential and quality, societal barriers, land-use constraints, and transboundary energy flows with neighbouring regions in order to be successful. Carbon-Free Europe's latest modelling analysis underscores the importance of this approach and outlines the steps Europe's climate leaders must take to meet this challenge head on."

Last year, Carbon-Free Europe released its first energy systems modelling, which identified five different pathways for the EU and UK to reach their 2050 net-zero emissions commitments.

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