India - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

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India - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

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India's mobile sector finds itself in period of major uncertainty as 2G re-auction approaches Whilst maintaining its ranking as one of the two largest telecom markets in the world –not surprisingly the other being China - India's massive mobile market entered a period of uncertainty in 2012. A number of factors have contributed to this uncertainty which in turn was set to see some changes in the marketplace.The Supreme Court decision in February 2012 that resulted in the large scale cancellation of operator licences and the subsequent responses of the regulators to the court orders saw an increasingly nervous market.Indeed, the unfolding impact of the 2G scandal was looking grim for the mobile industry, with some operators either exiting or considering exiting the market.After a number of delays, the all-important re-auctioning of the cancelled 2G mobile licences had been set for late in 2012.

By mid-2012, there had also been another form of 'shake out' in the mobile subscriber market as operators culled inactive prepaid subscribers from their customer bases; this process had caused a dislocation in the subscriber statistics and it was evident that the market would need time to settle. Despite the difficulties, overall growth in the national subscriber base was expected to continue at a still strong rate. The mobile sector had passed the 900 million subscriber mark by early 2012; the number was just 10 million subscribers in 2002!

While the mobile subscriber base witnessed growth of around 20% annually coming into 2012, Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) had been steadily declining as competing operators offered cheaper tariffs; at the same time usage levels have remained reasonably high thus slowing the decline in revenues. There has been a major push in recent years to take mobile services into the poorer and rural areas of the country; this has also weighed heavily on ARPUs. But countering this trend, the long-awaited 3G licensing has seen networks across the country delivering mobile data services to customers. Although still struggling with coverage issues, 3G was finally starting to help operators boost revenue. In 2012 there were signs that the decline in ARPU was 'bottoming out' and some operators were reporting increased ARPUs.

In the meantime, the fixed-line market, which had grown strongly for a while, began experiencing zero and then negative growth. Fixed-line subscriber numbers stood at just over 30 million by early 2012. With less than 3% fixed-line penetration, India has nevertheless achieved a remarkable national coverage, with 98% of the population having some form of access to a telephone. It has been the heavy investment in telecoms infrastructure over the last decade,plus a number of key regulatory initiatives that have combined to see India's huge population delivered at least some level of telephone service.

In terms of online access, there has been a fresh effort by the government to promote broadband internet throughout the country; after a period in which broadband development languished, there was new hope for a serious expansion phase in this segment of the market. By mid-2012 there were around 14 million fixed broadband subscribers – a lowly penetration (by population) of slightly more than 1%. Meanwhile, the impact of mobile broadband was finally starting to filter through the market and in the medium term this was expected to lift broadband penetration significantly.

Although facing serious functional challenges, there is much that is positive to be found in India's telecom industry. Sweeping reforms introduced by successive governments over the last decade or so have dramatically changed the nature of telecommunications in the country. A number of factors have been responsible for the amazing growth in India's telecom sector; apart from the obvious booming economy and the rapid expansion in the country's middle class, the growth drivers include low tariffs, low handset prices and most notably a highly competitive market created by the government and the regulator. The government continued to open the market up to more and more competition. The market in turn became home to a clutch of global operators working with local companies. The launch of Mobile Number Portability (MNP) in 2011 added yet another dimension to the intensely competitive market. The government has been continuing to push to complete the restructuring of the telecommunications regulatory regime.

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) remains especially committed to further structural reforms. The adoption of Unified Licensing, a change in the Access Deficit Charge regime, and the encouragement of increased infrastructure sharing, especially towers for mobile networks, were all contributing to ongoing growth. Another important initiative has been the Indian government's revised Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy which increased the foreign ownership cap from 49% to 74%. If anything it could be said that the regulation of the market has been overly enthusiastic; there being some signs that the market was starting to suffer from the complexity of the regulatory regime. In parallel with the regulatory change process, there has been a continuing evolution of the market through a series of mergers and takeovers among the mobile operators that has initially resulted in a welcome and productive consolidation. The opening up of the market to full scale competition has been both dramatic and effective; however, as already noted, major challenges remain.

Key highlights India

By June 2012 the country 934 million mobile subscribers, for a penetration of 77% (Note: a statistical adjustment to mobile subscribers figures was imminent);

The mobile market was likely to expand at an annual rate of between 10% and 15% over 2012/2013;

GSM was strengthening its position as the dominant mobile technology over CDMA with 85% of the mobile subscriber market in 2012;
The number of fixed broadband internet subscribers was steadily increasing, reaching 14 million for a penetration of just over 1% by population by mid-2012;
DSL, whilst holding the major portion of the local fixed broadband market, was steadily losing market share to other non-DSL broadband platforms, especially to wireless broadband platforms;

The market had witnessed a large scale roll-out of 3G networks by operators across the country following the long-delayed licensing;
However, 3G had not immediately delivered the expected boost to the market in terms of large scale adoption of mobile data services;
Following the Supreme Court decision cancelling operator licences in February 2012, the re-auction of the relevant 2G licences was expected in late 2012;Batelco became the first foreign operator to exit the Indian market in the wake of the 2G scandal; a number of other operators are considering whether to rebid in the re-auction of 2G licences India: - Key telecom subscribers – 2011 - 2012

Category | 2011 | 2012 (e) |
Fixed-line services: |   |   |
Total No. of subscribers | 32.7 million | 31.0 million |
Broadband (fixed): |   |   |
Total No. of subscribers | 13.3 million | 15.0 million |
Mobile services: |   |   |
Total No. of subscribers | 894 million | 1,000 million |
(Source: BuddeComm)

1. Key Statistics
1.1 Country overview
1.1.1 Background
1.1.2 Economy
1.1.3 Analysis: India in the aftermath of the global financial crisis
2. Telecommunications Market
2.1 Overview
2.2 Competition
2.3 2G scandal
2.4 Value Added Services (VAS)
2.5 Third Generation (3G) auction
2.6 WiMAX/wireless broadband spectrum auction
2.7 Foreign investment
2.7.1 Import of Chinese telecom equipment
2.8 Universal service
2.9 Government revenue
3. Regulatory Environment
3.1 Telecommunications authorities
3.1.1 Ministry for Communications (MoC)
3.1.2 Department of Telecommunications (DoT)
3.1.3 Telecom Commission
3.1.4 Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)
3.1.5 Telecom Dispute Settlement & Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT)
3.1.6 Telecom Sector Ombudsman (TSO)
3.1.7 Communications Commission of India (CCI)
3.2 Licensing circles
3.3 Regulatory developments
3.3.1 Overview
3.3.2 'Local content' rules
3.3.3 Supreme Court ruling on 'distribution of national assets'
3.3.4 Censorship issues
3.3.5 New spectrum policy
3.3.6 Tariffs
3.3.7 Penalties for delayed roll-out
3.3.8 Spectrum 'vacation'
3.3.9 Cancelled licences
3.3.10 Access Deficit Charge (ADC)
3.3.11 Excess bandwidth fees
3.3.12 Unified Access Services Licence (UASL)
3.3.13 Basic Telephone Service (BTS) licensing guidelines
3.3.14 The 'fixed' mobile story
3.3.15 Offshore investment
3.3.16 The Blackberry privacy case
3.3.17 Spectrum charges
3.3.18 Spectrum in 2014
3.4 National Telecom Policies
3.4.1 National Telecom Policies 1999 (NTP-99)
3.4.2 Addendum to NTP-99
3.4.3 New National Telecom Policy
3.4.4 National Broadband Policy 2004
3.4.5 Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF)
3.5 National security
4. Major Operators
4.1 Market overview
4.2 Unified Access Service Licences (UASL)
4.3 Mergers and acquisitions
4.4 BSNL/MTNL
4.5 Operator and market statistics
4.5.1 Mobile market
4.5.2 Fixed-line market
4.6 Aircel/Dishnet
4.6.1 Overview
4.7 Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL)
4.7.1 Overview
4.7.2 Mobile business
4.7.3 Fixed-line business
4.7.4 Broadband business
4.8 Bharti Airtel
4.8.1 Overview
4.8.2 Corporate structure
4.8.3 Mobile business
4.8.4 Fixed-line and broadband businesses
4.8.5 International business
4.9 Data Access
4.10 Etisalat DB Telecom (Swan Telecom)
4.11 Hughes Telecom
4.12 Idea/Spice
4.12.1 Overview
4.12.2 Background
4.12.3 Corporate structure
4.12.4 3G development
4.13 Loop Mobile (formerly BPL Mobile)
4.13.1 Overview
4.13.2 Corporate structure and development
4.14 Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL)
4.14.1 Overview
4.14.2 Corporate structure
4.14.3 Mobile business
4.14.4 Fixed-line and broadband business
4.15 Reliance Communications
4.15.1 Overview
4.15.2 Mobile business
4.15.3 Fixed-line business
4.15.4 International business
4.16 Sistema
4.16.1 Overview
4.16.2 Mobile business
4.16.3 Fixed-line business
4.17 Spice Telecom
4.18 S Tel
4.18.1 Overview
4.18.2 3G plans
4.19 Tata Teleservices
4.19.1 Overview
4.19.2 Corporate structure
4.19.3 Mobile business
4.19.4 Fixed-line business
4.19.5 International business: Tata Communications
4.20 Uninor
4.20.1 Overview
4.20.2 Problems following 2G license cancellation
4.21 Videocon
4.22 Vodafone Essar
4.23 Other operators and service providers
4.23.1 Mobile operators
4.23.2 Fixed network operators
4.23.3 Internet Service Providers (ISPs)
5. Telecommunications Infrastructure
5.1 National infrastructure
5.1.1 Overview
5.1.2 Statistics
5.1.3 Background to network development
5.1.4 Infrastructure sharing
5.1.5 Rural and regional networks
5.1.6 Fibre optic cable projects
5.1.7 National optical fibre network
5.1.8 Wireless Local Loop (WLL)
5.2 Infrastructure developments
5.2.1 IP networks
5.2.2 Next Generation Networks (NGN)
5.3 International infrastructure
5.3.1 Background
5.3.2 Interconnect agreements
5.3.3 India-Pakistan
5.3.4 International service disruption
5.3.5 Submarine cable networks
5.3.6 Satellite communications
6. Internet Market
6.1 Overview
6.1.1 Internet statistics
6.1.2 Threat of action against Twitter
6.1.3 E-medicine
6.1.4 IPv4/IPv6
6.1.5 Growth issues
6.2 Regulatory issues
6.2.1 Foreign Exchange transactions
6.2.2 Censorship of social media sites
6.2.3 Internet policy: background
6.2.4 Internet policy: development
6.2.5 National Internet Exchange of India (NIXI)
6.2.6 Control of the internet in India
6.2.7 International connectivity
6.3 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)
7. Broadband Market
7.1 Overview
7.1.1 Broadband statistics
7.2 National Broadband Policy
7.2.1 Implementation of National Broadband Policy
7.3 National Broadband Plan
7.4 Broadband technologies
7.4.1 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)
7.4.2 Cable modem
7.4.3 Wireless broadband
7.4.4 WiMAX
7.4.5 WiMAX spectrum auctions
7.4.6 LTE
7.4.7 Mobile wireless
7.5 Satellite
8. Digital Media / Digital Economy
8.1 Broadcasting Market
8.1.1 Overview
8.1.2 Digital media
8.1.3 Market statistics
8.1.4 Regulatory issues
8.2 TV and the transition to digital
8.2.1 Overview
8.2.2 Internet Protocol TV (IPTV)
8.2.3 Pay TV
8.2.4 Cable TV
8.2.5 Satellite TV
8.2.6 Major cable and pay TV operators
8.2.7 Free-to-Air TV
9. Mobile Communications
9.1 Overview of India's mobile market
9.2 Mobile statistics
9.3 Mobile market segments
9.4 Development issues
9.4.1 Cancellation of inactive subscribers
9.4.2 Tariffs for wireless broadband
9.4.3 Reporting of revenue
9.4.4 Revenue and ARPU
9.4.5 Spectrum allocations and spectrum auctions
9.4.6 Rural expansion
9.4.7 M-banking
9.4.8 Foreign investment
9.4.9 Merger and Acquisition (M&A) rules
9.5 Regulatory issues
9.5.1 Background
9.5.2 Developments in 2011
9.5.3 Developments in 2012
9.6 2G corruption scandal
9.6.1 Allegations
9.6.2 Charges
9.6.3 Court decision, appeal and aftermath
9.6.4 Re-auctioning of 2G spectrum
9.7 Analysis: 2G scandal - 2011
9.8 Mobile technologies
9.8.1 Overview of mobile technologies used in India
9.8.2 GSM
9.8.3 CDMA
9.8.4 Third Generation (3G) mobile
9.8.5 Fourth Generation (4G) / Long Term Evolution (LTE)
9.9 Mobile voice services
9.9.1 Prepaid
9.10 Mobile data services
9.10.1 Market overview
9.10.2 Short Message Service (SMS)
9.10.3 i-mode
9.10.4 BlackBerry
9.10.5 Mobile TV
9.10.6 Mobile content
10. Forecasts
10.1 Forecasts - fixed-line services – 2015; 2020
10.2 Forecasts- internet services – 2015; 2020
10.3 Forecasts - Mobile services – 2015; 2020
11. Glossary of Abbreviations
Table 1 – Country statistics India – 2012
Table 2 – Telecom revenue and investment statistics – 2009
Table 3 – Telephone network statistics – March 2012
Table 4 – Internet user statistics – March 2012
Table 5 – Broadband statistics – March 2012
Table 6 – Mobile statistics – March 2012
Table 7 – National telecommunications authorities
Table 8 – India's GDP real growth rate – 2006 - 2013
Table 9 – Fixed-line services versus mobile services and penetration – March 2012
Table 10 – Foreign Direct Investment in telecom sector – 2004 - 2011
Table 11 – Telephone services to villages – March 2012
Table 12 – Number of telecom licences issued by category – 2007 - 2008
Table 13 – Mobile operators and subscribers – March 2012
Table 14 – Total mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) by operator and market share – March 2012
Table 15 – GSM mobile operators, subscribers and market share – March 2012
Table 16 – CDMA mobile operators, subscribers and market share – March 2012
Table 17 –Overall mobile ARPU – 2005 - 2012
Table 18 – Mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended – March 2012
Table 19 – Mobile ARPU (blended) for selected operators – 2011
Table 20 – Fixed-line basic services by operator – March 2012
Table 21 – Fixed-line subscribers by operator – 2008 - 2012
Table 22 – Aircel mobile subscribers – 2004 - 2012
Table 23 – BSNL mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2012
Table 24 – Bharti Airtel mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2012
Table 25 – Bharti Airtel mobile ARPU – 2004 - 2005; 2007 - 2012
Table 26 – Bharti fixed-line subscribers – 2002 - 2012
Table 27 – Etisalat mobile subscribers – 2010 - 2012
Table 28 – Idea/Spice mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2012
Table 29 – Idea/Spice mobile ARPU – 2007 - 2011
Table 30 – Loop Mobile (BPL) mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2012
Table 31 – MTNL mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2012
Table 32 – MTNL fixed-line subscribers – 2004; 2007; 2010 - 2012
Table 33 – Reliance mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2012
Table 34 – Reliance mobile ARPU – 2007 - 2012
Table 35 – Reliance fixed-line subscribers – 2005 - 2012
Table 36 – Sistema mobile subscribers – 2008 - 2012
Table 37 – Spice Telecom mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2008
Table 38 – S Tel mobile subscribers – 2009 - 2012
Table 39 – Tata Teleservices mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2012
Table 40 – Uninor mobile subscribers – 2009 - 2012
Table 41 – Videocon mobile subscribers – 2010 - 2012
Table 42 – Vodafone Essar mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2012
Table 43 – Vodafone Essar mobile ARPU – 2008 - 2011
Table 44 – Number of licensed ISPs – 2002 – 2003; 2005; 2008 - 2012
Table 45 – ISP market – leading operators, subscribers and market share – March 2012
Table 46 – Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity – 2005 - 2012
Table 47 – Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity (historical) – 1995 - 2005
Table 48 – Growth of VPT scheme – 2001 - 2012
Table 49 – PCOs in operation and market share by operator – March 2012
Table 50 – PCOs in operation – 2003 - 2012
Table 51 – Fixed WLL subscribers (historical) – 2004 - 2006
Table 52 – Internet users – 1995 - 2012
Table 53 – Internet subscribers – 1995 - 2012
Table 54 – Dial-up internet subscribers – 2007 - 2012
Table 55 – Internet (dial-up) ARPU – 2005; 2007 - 2009
Table 56 – International internet bandwidth – 2000 - 2012
Table 57 – Fixed broadband subscribers – 2001 - 2012
Table 58 – Fixed broadband subscribers - market share by access type – March 2012
Table 59 – Broadband subscribers and households – March 2012
Table 60 – Internet subscribers by access type – March 2012
Table 61 – India - Broadband and internet subscriber targets – 2005; 2007; 2010
Table 62 – DSL subscribers – 2001 - 2012
Table 63 – Cable modem subscribers – 2001 - 2012
Table 64 – Wireless broadband subscribers – 2003; 2006 - 2012
Table 65 - Broadcasting market overview - 2011
Table 66 – Cable and TV households – 1995 - 2011
Table 67 – Total TV industry revenue – 2000 - 2011
Table 68 – Pay TV subscribers by technology – 2003- 2012
Table 69 – Number of channels carried by cable operators – 2009 - 2011
Table 70 – DTH subscribers – 2008 - 2012
Table 71 – Overview of India's mobile market – 2010 - 2012
Table 72 – Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration – 2006 - 2012
Table 73 – Mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) – 2002 - 2012
Table 74 – GSM mobile subscribers and annual change – 1997 - 2012
Table 75 – Mobile penetration urban and rural – 2007; 2009 - 2012
Table 76 – Mobile services revenue – 1996 - 2012
Table 77 – Mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended – March 2012
Table 78 – Mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA) – 2005 - 2012
Table 79 –GSM mobile subscribers by region/circle – 2009; 2010 - 2012
Table 80 – GSM ARPU – 2003 - 2012
Table 81 – GSM ARPU by region/circle, prepaid/postpaid/blended – March 2012
Table 82 – GSM mobile operators, subscribers and market share – March 2012
Table 83 – GSM ARPU by operator grouping, prepaid/postpaid/blended – March 2012
Table 84 – CDMA mobile operators, subscribers and market share – March 2012
Table 85 – CDMA ARPU – 2003 - 2012
Table 86 – CDMA ARPU by region/circle, prepaid/postpaid/blended – March 2012
Table 87 – 3G auction (2010): Number of licences and total fees paid by operators
Table 88 – Prepaid mobile subscribers: share of total market – 2003 - 2012
Table 89 – Mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended – March 2012
Table 90 – SMS traffic by technology and subscriber – 2011 - 2012
Table 91 – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 92 – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 93 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Chart 1 - Mobile operators and subscribers - March 2012
Chart 2 - Mobile operators' market share by subscribers – March 2012
Chart 3 – Market share of fixed-line basic services by operator – March 2012
Chart 4 - ISP market - leading operators, subscribers and market share - March 2012
Chart 5 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity – 2005 - 2012
Chart 6 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity (historical) – 1995 - 2005
Chart 7 - PCOs in operation and market share by operator - March 2012
Chart 8 - Internet subscribers and growth – 2001 - 2012
Chart 9 - Fixed broadband subscribers - 2001-2012
Chart 10 - Fixed broadband subscribers - market share by access type - March 2012
Chart 11 - DSL subscribers - 2001-2012
Chart 12 - Cable modem subscribers - 2001-2012
Chart 13 – Cable and TV households and TV industry revenue: 2000 - 2011
Chart 14 - Pay TV subscribers by technology 2003-2012
Chart 15 - Mobile subscribers and penetration – 2006 - 2012
Chart 16 - Mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) - 2002-2012
Chart 17 - GSM mobile subscribers and annual change - 1997-2012
Chart 18 - Mobile penetration urban and rural - 2007; 2009-2012
Chart 19 - Mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA) - 2005-2012
Chart 20 – GSM mobile operator market share – September 2012
Chart 21 – CDMA mobile operator market share – March 2012
Exhibit 1 – Overview of FDI policy for India's telecom sector
Exhibit 2 – Major shareholders in Bharti Airtel – April 2012
Exhibit 3 – Bharti Airtel – mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 4 – Idea Cellular – mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 5 – Reliance Communications – mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 6 – Tata Teleservices – mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 7 – Vodafone Essar – mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 8 – International submarine cable systems with landing points in India - 2011
Exhibit 9 – ISRO satellite network – September 2012
Exhibit 10 – Broadcasting Standard and major broadcasters
Exhibit 11 – Information on FTA turned Pay and New Pay Channels
Exhibit 12 – Overview of major channels available to consumers in India
Exhibit 13 – Operators issued DTH licences – March 2012
Exhibit 14 – Operators and licences affected by 2G licensing process cancellation – February 2012
Exhibit 15 – CDMA 3G commercial deployment in India

To order this report:
Broadband Industry: India - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

Nicolas Bombourg
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