New modelling shows the UK in great shape to decarbonise its economy by 2050--with nuclear and offshore wind energy contributing the most to achieving net-zero emissions

BRUSSELS, March 30, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- New, first-of-its-kind energy systems modelling, commissioned by Carbon-Free Europe, finds the UK well-positioned to reach net-zero emissions by leveraging its powerful combination of offshore wind and nuclear heat, along with other sources. As the UK electrifies buildings, transport and parts of industry, and begins using electricity to produce hydrogen, electricity demand will likely increase by ~240% in 2050. This finding is part of the initiative's comprehensive modelling of the United Kingdom, European Union, and its Member States' energy system pathways to net-zero.

The model identifies the UK as one of the European countries best positioned to lead with a technology-inclusive approach to net-zero. The UK has access to a plethora of resources needed in a net-zero future, such as offshore wind, nuclear energy, salt caverns for hydrogen storage, carbon capture technology and geologic sequestration, and biofuels.

The data shows the UK can achieve independence from Russian natural gas, reduce exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices, and reach carbon neutrality by 2050 through a power mix of around 36% of offshore wind, 34% of nuclear, 9% of onshore wind, and 7% of solar, and 1% other resources like biomass, geothermal, and hydro. Although the model predicts the UK to be a top energy exporter, up to 12% would likely be imported for reliability and resource quality reasons.

UK dependence on natural gas-fired boilers for space and water heating should reduce dramatically: data shows three-quarters of domestic gas-fired boilers must be scrapped between 2035 and 2040, which will require government action. The modelling, which runs in response to current high natural gas prices, shows how consumers will continue to face volatile electricity bills unless fossil fuels are abandoned altogether.

The modelling also found:

• Electricity Generation: A strategy that allows the UK to deploy a diversity of all low-carbon technologies requires 226 GW less in terms of capacity than a scenario based on renewables alone, saving the UK Government £5 billion per year by 2050.
• Renewables: Offshore wind has the greatest renewable resource potential in the UK- estimated to be over 50% of the UK's renewable capacity in 2050. Meanwhile, onshore wind lacks potential due to land-use constraints, including protected wilderness and farmland where wind turbines cannot be built.
• From 2011 to 2020, the UK built on average 4 gigawatts of wind and solar a year. To meet demand, the UK will need to build 6-14 gigawatts annually (representing an 150-350% increase).
• Electrification: Achieving carbon neutrality in the UK is estimated to require a 240% increase in electricity demand by 2050 due to the accelerated electrification of buildings, transportation, and parts of industry combined with increased use of electricity for hydrogen production.
• Energy Sovereignty: Accounting for continued high natural gas prices, the analysis reinforces that the UK and its citizens can reduce vulnerability to volatile fossil fuel prices and enjoy greater energy sovereignty with clean energy.
• Modelling shows pipeline gas consumption for residential space heating should reduce from 14,445 ktoe to 8,235 ktoe by 2035, and further reduce to 2,275 ktoe by 2040, suggesting a large replacement of gas boilers. This will require firm Government action.

Josh Freed, co-founder of the Carbon-Free Europe initiative, said: "The UK Government's commitment to nuclear new build will help to deliver British energy sovereignty – both from Russian natural gas and from neighbouring countries' energy policies - and ensure stable prices for the public."

Lindsey Walter, co-founder of the Carbon-Free Europe initiative, said:

"The UK is well-positioned to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 if inclusive policies enforce an all-of-the-above carbon-free energy mix, and proper investment is made to scale up the necessary technologies and transmission lines required in a net-zero world."

"Electrification of buildings, including the replacement of natural gas boilers with heat pumps, will mean an upfront cost for consumers, but will be a crucial strategy to rapidly reduce the UK's reliance on natural gas and ensure stable, lower energy bills."

The data is available here.

Carbon-Free Europe

Carbon-Free Europe is working to galvanise support across Europe for an ambitious decarbonisation agenda and is driving efforts to innovate and modernise European energy systems. Through a combination of cutting-edge research and advocacy, the organisation seeks to encourage national governments to deploy every clean energy technology necessary for the world to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 at the latest.

The modelling demonstrates how Europe can decarbonize its entire economy, not just the power sector, showing how different sectors interact as they work together to reduce emissions.

http://www.carbonfreeeurope.org/