UKRAINIANS INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT OF VICTORY, NEW POLLING FROM LORD ASHCROFT FINDS

LONDON, Feb. 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Ukrainians are increasingly confident of defeating the Russian invasion and expect a military victory rather than a diplomatic solution, according to new polling from Lord Ashcroft. Meanwhile Russian support for the "special military operation" remains high at 76%, and 85% of Russians say they have a favourable view of President Putin. While 41% of British people say the UK has a direct interest in defeating the invasion of Ukraine, only 33% of Americans say the same for the US.

Surveys of more than 2,000 people were conducted in each in Ukraine, Russia, Britain and the US. Findings include:

• Nearly 7 in 10 Ukrainians (69%) said they were more confident of defeating the Russian invasion than they were when the conflict started. Only 39% of Russians said they were more confident of victory than they were when the "special military operation" (SMO) began.
• 57% of Russians said they thought the "special military operation" was progressing successfully. 85% of Ukrainians said they thought the defence of Ukraine was progressing successfully. Six in 10 Russians said Ukraine seems to be resisting Russian forces more strongly than they would have expected.
• Asked whether they thought various countries and organisations were doing enough to help Ukraine, Ukrainians were most likely to say Yes for the UK (74%), ahead of the US (71%) and the EU (61%). Fewer than half said Germany, France and NATO were doing enough, though their numbers were up significantly since our last survey in June 2022.
• Asked what they most wanted from their allies, Ukrainians' top answers were more weapons and military equipment (87%), admission to NATO (50%) and a no-fly zone enforced by allied air forces (42%). Fewer than 3 in 10 said stricter economic sanctions, humanitarian aid or diplomatic efforts were the main priorities. However, people in Britain and the US were most ready to give humanitarian aid and diplomatic support.
• Support was higher in Britain than the US for supplying Ukraine with tanks and armoured vehicles (65% v. 55%), weapons and ammunition (68% v. 58%), humanitarian aid (84% v. 77%), financial support (64% v. 51%) and introducing stricter economic sanctions (67% v. 57%). There was similar support in both countries for supplying fighter jets to the Ukraine military (49% and 48%).
• 86% of Ukrainians want their country to join NATO. Majorities in Britain and the US (60% and 55%) agreed that Ukraine should be allowed to join. Two thirds of Ukrainians (66%) say they would feel safer if they had nuclear weapons.
• Russians (64%) are more likely than Ukrainians (56%) to think the war will last at least another 6 months. 42% of Russians think it will continue for more than a year from how, compared to 1 in 3 Ukrainians. Ukrainians (66%) are considerably more likely than Russians (45%) to think the war would end with by a military victory for one side, rather than a diplomatic solution.
• Three quarters (76%) of Russians said they supported the "SMO" in Ukraine – the same as in June 2022. Support ranged from 60% among 18-24-year-olds to 86% among those aged 65+. Only a minority of Russians (39%) said they thought the "SMO" had significantly damaged Russia's reputation.
• Nearly two thirds (65%) of Russians said they expected a new round of conscription to support the "SMO". However, only 56% of Russians as a whole say they would support a new round of conscription – and a majority of younger Russians (62% of 18-24s and 51% of 25-34s) were opposed.
• People in Britain were more likely than Americans to say they had a direct interest in defeating the Russian invasion of Ukraine (41% v. 33%) or that supporting Ukraine was the right thing to do even if there was no direct interest at stake (27% v. 23%). Americans were twice as likely to say they should not intervene because the conflict had nothing to do with them (5% GB, 10% US), or that supporting Ukraine was damaging their economy and making their country a target (7% GB, 14% US).

2,019 adults in Ukraine were interviewed by telephone between 7 and 13 February 2023. 2,012 adults in Russia were interviewed by telephone between 3 and 13 February 2023. 2,082 adults in Great Britain were interviewed online between 13 and 14 February 2023. 2,204 adults in the US were interviewed online between 10 and 14 February 2023. Full findings from the research are available at LordAshcroftPolls.com

LORD ASHCROFT KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, pollster and author. He is a former Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party and honorary Chairman of the International Democrat Union. His recent political books include Going For Broke: The Rise of Rishi Sunak, First Lady: Intrigue at the Court of Carrie and Boris Johnson, and Red Knight: The Unauthorised Biography of Sir Keir Starmer.

LordAshcroftPolls.com  //  LordAshcroft.com  //  Twitter/Facebook: @LordAshcroft

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