Ulster and the Union: New Northern Ireland Polling From Lord Ashcroft

LONDON, Dec. 12, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Northern Ireland would vote to stay in the UK in a referendum tomorrow – but most believe a border poll in 10 years' time would result in a united Ireland, according to new polling from Lord Ashcroft.

His latest report, Ulster and the Union: the view from the North is published today. The research includes a survey of over 3,000 Northern Ireland voters together with focus groups throughout the province. Key findings include:

• 49% said that in a border poll tomorrow they would vote to remain in the UK, 41% said they would vote for a united Ireland and 10% said they did not know: a majority of 54% to 46% for the Union among those voting.
• 63% thought a border poll tomorrow would produce a majority for staying in the UK – but by 51% to 34%, NI voters thought a referendum 10 years from now would result in a united Ireland. Only 64% of Unionists thought the province would choose the UK in a decade.
• Only 33% of NI voters – and just 56% of Unionists – said they thought the Westminster government very much wanted or would prefer for NI to remain in the UK. At the same time, only 52% of all voters thought the Irish government in Dublin would like to see unification between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
• Voters as a whole were more likely to think that prices, housing costs, tax rates and unemployment would be higher in a united Ireland than that they would be lower, while public spending and welfare benefits were more likely to be lower. Business investment was thought more likely to be higher. Voters thought opportunities for young people and (by a small margin) parity of esteem were more likely to be better than worse in a united Ireland – though 78% of Unionists disagreed on that point.
• Nearly 9 in 10 (88%) said they thought Brexit had contributed to shortages of food and other goods in NI shops. However, Unionists were more likely to blame the Northern Ireland Protocol: 78% of them said the Protocol had been a major factor in shortages, compared to 38% who said the same of Brexit in general.
• One third (33%) – including 66% of Unionists and 96% of those intending to vote TUV at the next Assembly election – said the NI Protocol was wrong in principle and should be scrapped. A further 9% said it is currently too much of a burden and needs serious reform, while 36% (including 67% of 2017 Alliance voters) said it would be acceptable with some adjustments. Just over one in five (21%), including 56% of 2017 Sinn Féin voters, said they thought there were no problems with the Protocol.
• Overall, two thirds (67%) of NI voters – including 34% of Unionists – said they thought Brexit had made Irish unification in the foreseeable future more likely.
• 2017 DUP voters rated TUV leader Jim Allister higher than both their own leader Jeffrey Donaldson and First Minister Paul Givan. They were also the least likely of all the major parties' voters to say they would to stick with their 2017 party at the next Assembly elections.

Ulster and the Union: the view from the North is available to download for free at LordAshcroftPolls.com, together with full data tables from the poll.

LORD ASHCROFT KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. He is a former treasurer and deputy chairman of the UK Conservative Party, and honorary chairman and a former treasurer of the International Democratic Union. His political books include Call Me Dave: The Unauthorised Biography of David Cameron, Going for Broke: The Rise of Rishi Sunak and Red Knight: The Unauthorised Biography of Sir Keir Starmer.

LordAshcroftPolls.com  //  LordAshcroft.com  //  Twitter/Facebook: @LordAshcroft

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